It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...

We live in a world where a lot of things seem to happen by pure chance, from winning the Lotto to losing your car keys. But the truth is, the likelihood of many everyday things happening is heavily ...

What’s often misunderstood about Google’s incrementality testing and how Bayesian models use probability to guide better ...

When our brains don't have a good intuition for reasoning with numbers, explicit probabilistic thinking can lead to improved decision-making. A man went on an airplane ride. Unfortunately, he fell out ...

Having a strong opinion about an issue can make it hard to take in new information about it, or to consider other options when they’re presented. Thankfully, there’s an old rule that can help us avoid ...

Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt says Bitcoin is following a similar pattern from its past, which could lead to a $125,000 BTC price by New Year’s Eve. Bitcoin (BTC) price entered a strong price discovery ...