Bayesian approaches to the study of politics are increasingly popular. But Bayesian approaches to modeling multiple time series have not been critically evaluated. This is in spite of the potential ...

Thomas Bayes, one of the leading mathematical lights in computing today, differs from most of his colleagues: He has argued that the existence of God can be derived from equations. His most important ...

Synthese, Vol. 57, No. 3, Rationality and Objectivity: Philosophical and Psychological Conceptions, Part II (Dec., 1983), pp. 341-365 (25 pages) It is argued that we need a richer version of Bayesian ...

Computer scientists in California have built a mathematical theory of surprise, working from first principles of probability theory applied to a digital environment, according to this news release ...

Bayes’s core contribution, which Chivers skillfully renders into cogent prose designed to educate the lay reader, is the notion that the likelihood of an event taking place in the future depends, in ...

Investors and executives are spending an awful lot of time these days analyzing the “bet the company” decisions that corporate leadership teams increasingly are called upon to make. Some are obviously ...

Julia Kagan is a financial/consumer journalist and former senior editor, personal finance, of Investopedia. Credibility theory refers to tools, policies, and procedures used by actuaries when ...