A true nuclear war has never happened - so how can we accurately calculate the probability of it happening in the future? Stock image of a mushroom cloud from a nuclear bomb.

At the time of the announcement in January, the asteroid’s impact probability was reported to exceed 1%. The impact probability describes how likely a hazardous asteroid is to hit Earth.

As an example, in 2014 Pew Research Center switched from exclusively using live phone with random-digit-dial sample to also using a probability-based panel. In 2020 the Center added an additional ...