Before we reveal the best- and worst-rated pollsters, let’s start with our regular review of polling accuracy overall. We analyzed virtually all polls conducted in the final 21 days 1 before ...

One big takeaway here is that, perhaps unsurprisingly, we did best in calling races correctly when we were more confident of the outcome. We got 41 percent of our toss-up calls right, along with ...

Louisiana Tech women's basketball coach Sonja Hogg is carried off the court by her players after winning the 1981 AIAW national championship. Harley Soltes / AP By the time that Title IX passed in ...

Voting Rights How Majority-Minority Districts Fueled Diversity In Congress And why people of color are winning more seats outside of those districts too.

Finally, Trump leads in polls of early primary states, albeit generally by smaller margins. A poll of Iowa conducted by a pro-DeSantis group over the summer showed Trump leading DeSantis 38 ...

The Details Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their histor… ...

Societal Distrust Why Being Anti-Science Is Now Part Of Many Rural Americans’ Identity And why that will make communication around the next crisis so much more challenging.

Those surveys suggest that Murphy retains a meaningful edge, but they also contain some warning signs for the Democrat. Monmouth’s poll found Biden’s approval rating among New Jerseyans had ...

Why 435? There have been 435 seats in the House for so long now that it might seem as if the Founding Fathers had foreseen it as a natural ceiling for the chamber’s size. But that isn’t the ...

Abortion-rights supporters also defeated a Kentucky ballot measure stating that there is no right to abortion under the state constitution. That outcome might seem surprising, given that ...

But that’s not saying a lot.When the new Congress comes into session in January, there will be more Black Republicans serving together on Capitol Hill than at any point since 1877. The number ...

Redistricting changed the electoral calculus in several battleground states: Some legislative chambers got more competitive, while other previously contested chambers got sewn up for one party.