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Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates.
Monetary policy in the United States is determined by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a decisionmaking body that includes regional representation. Evidence shows that the economic conditions ...
A range of tariffs on U.S. imports has been enacted or considered recently. Trade tariffs can potentially affect price inflation for consumption and investment goods. Estimates suggest that the impact ...
The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...
Surveys of professional economic forecasters and financial market data can reveal public perceptions about the future conduct of monetary policy. Current estimates suggest that both professional ...
Examining the data across racial and ethnic groups provides some insights into what is driving the growth in prime-age women’s participation. We use microdata collected under the Bureau of Labor ...
How much has excess demand contributed to inflation recently? Next, we use our estimates of the causal effects of tightness, or excess demand, on inflation to help understand the recent evolution of ...
Wildfires have been a concern in California for decades. The intensity of these events has increased recently, with particularly large and destructive fire seasons between 2018 and 2021. Analysis ...
Households accumulated more liquid assets beginning in 2020 than would have been expected without the pandemic. These “extra” liquid assets have dissipated, but their evolution has differed ...
The Congressional Budget Office recently raised its demographic projections for net U.S. immigration. Most of the increase in the projections came from undocumented immigrants. Updating the CBO ...
Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises ...
The results suggest that future changes in climate will increase exposure to extreme heat for outdoor workers in the United States. The number of days above 25°C for these workers rises substantially ...